Overview
A transmission-level model of the all-island grid (down to 110 kV substations) with per-farm wind and solar, solved as a full Mode-B security-constrained optimal power flow (DC, N-1, EirGrid-published contingency set) over the whole year. Unlike a copperplate price model, it resolves where on the network wind is constrained off — dispatch-down is decomposed by SEM area, so you can see which regions carry the curtailment and constraint and assess new or connecting assets node by node.
The model covers:
- Historical 2025 — validated against EirGrid's published wind transmission dispatch-down (DD-HH).
- ECP-2.5 2028 buildout — the three connection-policy tiers (Initial → 0.5 → full, up to 10.2 GW onshore wind / 9.7 GW solar at real network locations), validated against EirGrid's published forecast.
Validation
The headline credibility test: we reproduce the regulator's published forecast — across the whole ECP-2.5 buildout. As connected wind grows through the three ECP tiers, modelled Ireland-wide wind dispatch-down tracks EirGrid's published figure at every step:
| ECP tier | Model wind DD | EirGrid published | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Initial | 3,819 GWh | 4,058 GWh | −5.9% |
| 0.5 | 5,762 GWh | 5,653 GWh | +1.9% |
| Full buildout | 8,160 GWh | 8,289 GWh | −1.6% |
At full buildout the model lands within 1.6%, at an identical 33.8% of available wind. The Validation tab shows the per-SEM-area breakdown (our model vs EirGrid published) for each tier plus the 2025 historical check. Northern Ireland is reported for information only (no published SONI dispatch-down reference; a documented separate calibration).
Downloads
- Free topology demo — a single-region (Connacht) slice of the 110 kV network with inputs unified to placeholder values: no real capacities or costs, but a well-posed model you can run a dispatch on in Convexity to explore how it works. Sign in to download.
- A Convexity
.dbper year/scenario — the full all-island 110 kV network with per-asset dispatch and dispatch-down (licence-gated).